By Bill Peckham
I just listened to RSN's new H1N1 KidneyTalk with Lana Kacherova, RN, Quality Improvement Director for the Southern California Renal Disease Council. Stephen takes the skeptics point of view expecting this will be another crises that doesn't amount to much - mentioning Y2K and the H5N1 "Bird Flu" virus. This is a pretty common view, and often this point will be made along with the point that seasonal flu kills tens of thousands of people every year, yet H1N1 has caused one confirmed death in the US. Therefor, how can H1N1 be a bigger problem than seasonal flu? (which is no big deal). I'd tell Stephen that I am worried, this is a bad situation particularly for those on incenter hemodialysis.
Flu is always a problem and we put a lot of effort into minimizing its impact each year through community vaccination programs that target at risk groups - such as people with chronic kidney disease. This flu has an almost wide open population to infect (there has been a report that people over 60 may have some natural immunity (probably from being infected during the 1957 H1N1 1918 echo pandemic) which would be great news for our dialysis population) and that is what defines a pandemic - a communicable disease, normally a flu virus (SARS, hepatitis are nonflu examples) which is spreading from human to human, across the globe. It's clear this is happening, that makes the H1N1 virus a pandemic virus.
I think we should expect that WHO will announce a stage 6 pandemic soon, the virus is sustaining human to human transmission - which means on average each person the virus infects goes on to infect more than one other person. That in itself does not create an health crises, the unanswered question is severity. Does the virus cause severe illness? Which is really a three or four part question: how many people will get sick? (Over what period of time?) What percent of those who get sick will need hospitalization? And of those, what percent will die? If, as we all hope, the virus does not cause serious illness then we can thank providence for this wake up call but at this point there is no way to know that that is how this will turn out.
We still don't know what this virus will look like in people who have not traveled to Mexico or been hanging around people who have traveled to Mexico. People with a Mexico connection - the first cases - have been treated with Tamiflu; over the next weeks we'll find out what course the disease takes in people who are blindsided by this and who do not get Tamiflu within 48 hours of symptoms. It is very good that this virus responds to Tamiflu but that will create its own problems around matching supplies with demand if the H1N1 virus turns out to be more severe than our hopes.
It is generally assumed that this flu will take the summer off, most flues go into a lull this time of year, but that does not have to happen. The influenza virus is extremely unpredictable. It is prone to mutation, it could get better or it could get worse. It could go away. It could stay and build into the summer. Or it could go and then come back. We just don't know. We have three modern examples of pandemic flu: 1918; 1957; 1968. How well could you predict a hurricane or an earthquake if you only had three examples? The three pandemics from the last century are three points on a continuum, there are more severe pandemics than 1918 possible, just as there are pandemics possible that are milder than 1968. We don't yet know where 2009 will end up on that continuum but it will be there, this is an historic event.
I would tell Stephen that it is too early to call this one and that the provision of dialysis is still threatened. As I have written few providers took preparation seriously. The Northwest Kidney Centers has posted their Pandemic Guidance for NKC patients and NKC staff; NKC intends to continue providing dialysis to their patients in the normal time and place - they have N95 masks, Tamiflu and pandemic policies and procedures in the units and ready to go. NKC is one of the few dialysis providers to have an established, close working relationship with their local emergency planning agency. NKC has thought about what they will do in a pandemic, which is more than most providers can say.
Right now is a hell of a time for dialysis providers to be making first contact with their local emergency planning entity. Dialysis providers have failed if their plan is to not dialyze their patients with flu like symptoms. They have failed as dialysis providers if their plan is to send patients with flu like symptoms to the local ER. If this turns out to be the least bit severe then I think the risk of failure is high and that is what is keeping me up at night.





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