There is a new KidneyTalk up. They're talking to Stephen Furst's transplant surgeon Dr. Woodle, who is also a liver transplant recipient. You'd want your transplant surgeon to be highly in favor of transplant but I have to point out that I think he is making a flawed point about the relative risks of dialysis v. transplant. He compares the program wide annual mortality rate of dialysis with the expected mortality outcome for a transplant - saying it's something like 24% v. 2% - that's not exactly wrong but it is not very informative either.
Most transplant recipients are relitively healthy (on the CKD5 continuum) and would have a better prognosis on dialysis than Dr. Woodle credits. In my case - youngish, no comorbidities - my expected mortality on conventional dialysis is around 10%. There is limited data but it looks as if my expected mortality on short daily hemodialysis would be in the 5 to 7% range and on daily nocturnal home hemo (NHHD) in the 2 to 3% range. Even if the raw projected mortality rate is higher for NHHD, I think I can make the case that NHHD RIVALS a transplant.
Both a transplant and any form of dialysis has a range of outcomes. If you graph the outcomes of a transplant - longevity along the x axis of 1,000 people you'd see the normal distribution - the classic bell shaped curve. The center of the curve is the Mean, and the tails would extend from 0 on one side to 30+ years. In general it would be a pretty flat bell - in other words there is a wide range of outcomes.
If you graph the outcomes of NHHD - longevity along the x axis of 1,000 people you'd again see the standard distribution but it would be a different shape. The NHHD curve would be pointier (the tails would still extend to both limits). The Mean, the center of the curve would be, I think, slightly to the left of the transplant mean. So the average outcome of the transplant would be slightly better then the average outcome of NHHD (maybe) but NHHD would have a more predictable outcome. A pointier distribution curve means that there is less spread between the outcomes.
Transplant has higher highs and lower lows. Usually when we say which is better, we mean which modality has the better mean; looking at the data it would be understandable for a person to conclude that transplant is the better option. However, another person looking at this data may value predictability, so they might understandably choose NHHD.
At least that's how I see it.
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